Mayhem in the air tonight

Judicial reform chaos, ethical immigration & la malinche

Author

Rocio C
August 22, 2024

Happy Thursday!

Today we’re diving into the hot topic of the upcoming judicial reform that's sparked strikes, sent the peso tumbling, and raised Mexico’s risk profile. Oh my!

Let’s get into it.

TOP NEWS 

El profesor Jirafales from Chavo del 8.

Judicial Strikes Shake Mexico: Peso Drops, Risk Profile Rises Amid Court Reform Push

This week, thousands of judges and judicial workers across Mexico went on strike as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) pushes for a massive court overhaul. AMLO wants to make judges elected by popular vote, which some critics see as a power grab. The strike has already hit the peso, which dropped 2%, and Morgan Stanley just raised Mexico's risk profile.

Tell me more.

After Morena's big win in the June 2 elections, they've been racing to push through constitutional changes before AMLO’s term ends in September. The most controversial? Electing federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, by popular vote. AMLO says it’s necessary to fight corruption, but critics argue it threatens judicial independence and the rule of law.

On Monday, unions representing 55,000 judicial workers started the strike, and by Wednesday, 1,400 federal judges had joined in. Juana Fuentes, leader of the federal judges' association, warned that this reform could give AMLO and Morena too much power. “If this bill passes, we’re looking at absolute power in one person’s hands,” she said.

Let’s unpack this.

The proposal has judicial candidates nominated by the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, vetted by special committees, and then put to a popular vote. Elections would be staggered, with half the judges elected in 2025 and the rest in 2027.

AMLO argues this is a way to root out corruption, citing a survey where nearly half of respondents had little faith in the judicial system, and 92% of crimes went unreported or uninvestigated. But critics say it’s more about populism than fixing the real problem: the prosecutors' offices.

What does this mean?

While everyone agrees Mexico’s justice system needs reform, many see AMLO’s plan as risky. On Tuesday, he dismissed the protests in his daily “mañanera” press conference, but the markets didn’t ignore them. That same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Mexico to "underweight," signaling a sell recommendation. The bank warned that the reforms could increase risk and harm investment, especially with nearshoring hitting key bottlenecks.

Markets are worried the changes could weaken checks and balances, hurt the business climate, and spark trade disputes under the USMCA. The peso is now trading at 19.51 to the dollar, reflecting these concerns.

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CULTURE & HAPPENINGS
DID YOU KNOW?

That La Malinche was a Nahua woman who played a crucial role during the Spanish conquest of Mexico? As an interpreter, advisor and lover to Hernán Cortés, she helped bridge communication between the Spanish and indigenous peoples. Her assistance was pivotal in the fall of the Aztec Empire and as such, she is a controversial figure, viewed by some as a traitor and by others as a victim of circumstance and pioneer of diplomacy.

ROCIO RECOMMENDS

Escape the city and enjoy a hike at Los Dinamos National Park, just a 45-minute drive from Roma/Condesa.

VIRAL VAULT

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